Nigeria’s political terrain remains as intricate as ever, with President Bola Tinubu at the center of its current configuration. From internal conflicts within the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) to emerging regional alliances and ideological recalibrations, the nation’s political dynamics continue to evolve in unpredictable ways.
The APC, which rose to power through the amalgamation of several parties, is facing internal tensions that threaten its cohesion. A significant source of friction lies between Tinubu’s loyalists and remnants of the now-defunct Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), the political vehicle once championed by former President Muhammadu Buhari. Some elements within the CPC faction reportedly feel marginalized and are agitating for relevance. A group from this bloc—derisively dubbed the “Black Sheep”—is said to be preparing a public endorsement of Tinubu’s administration, a move that would signal an uneasy but necessary truce.
While Tinubu works to consolidate power within the party, his policies continue to attract scrutiny. Economic reforms, including subsidy removals and monetary policy shifts, have faced backlash for worsening hardship in the short term. Security challenges in the North and parts of the Middle Belt have also raised questions about the administration’s effectiveness. In what many see as a strategic move, Tinubu appears keen on distancing his administration from Buhari’s legacy, subtly recasting his tenure as a break from past missteps rather than a continuation.
Behind the scenes, Tinubu’s leadership style has been the subject of academic and political analyses. Studies suggest that his political success is deeply rooted in his knack for building coalitions across party and regional lines. Whether working quietly with opposition governors or courting power brokers in Nigeria’s fractious North, Tinubu has shown a pragmatic understanding of how to survive and thrive in a volatile system. His calculated maneuvers are often focused on tangible outcomes, reinforcing his image as a results-oriented leader rather than an ideologue.
Yet, challenges loom. Speculation is rife that former Kaduna governor Nasir El-Rufai may rally support in the North for Labour Party’s Peter Obi—a development that could significantly alter the 2027 electoral calculus. Should this materialize, Tinubu’s response would likely involve renewed engagement with Northern elites, bolstered national unity messaging, and targeted regional policies that speak directly to the concerns of Northern citizens.
In the quest for stability, there are whispers of potential strategic agreements with key opposition figures, particularly PDP governors. Such an alliance could see cross-party support in exchange for concessions, possibly including a joint candidate for the next presidential election. If pulled off, it would be a masterstroke, reducing political volatility and cementing Tinubu’s role as a national unifier rather than a sectional leader.
Ultimately, Tinubu’s leadership strategy offers critical insights for those navigating complex political ecosystems. His focus on understanding regional dynamics, proactively engaging diverse stakeholders, and prioritizing deliverables over rhetoric has allowed him to maintain a delicate balance. As Nigeria approaches yet another election cycle, his ability to adapt and recalibrate in the face of emerging threats will determine whether he consolidates his legacy—or becomes another casualty of the country's unforgiving political currents.