Former presidential candidate Peter Obi of the Labour Party on July 28, 2025, issued a stark warning that Nigeria’s public debt could surpass ₦200 trillion by the end of 2025, citing unsustainable borrowing trends.
Speaking at a policy dialogue organized by the Nigerian Economic Society, Obi referenced data from the Debt Management Office (DMO), which reported a debt stock of ₦121.67 trillion ($91 billion) as of March 2025, a 35% increase from ₦90 trillion in 2023. He projected that with ongoing borrowings, including a proposed $2 billion Eurobond, and a 2025 budget deficit of ₦9.18 trillion, the figure could escalate, driven by a 33.4% inflation rate and a naira depreciation to ₦1,600 per dollar.
Obi criticized the government’s reliance on debt for recurrent expenditure, noting that 60% of revenue services debt, per DMO figures, leaving little for capital projects. The administration defends the borrowing as necessary for infrastructure, with Minister of Finance Wale Edun citing the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway. However, economists from the Nigerian Economic Summit Group warn of a debt-to-GDP ratio nearing 50%, risking a crisis akin to Zambia’s 2020 default. The narrative of fiscal caution is compelling, but the government’s growth narrative clashes with Obi’s alarm, with the 2025 fiscal outcome pivotal.