The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), on June 30, 2025, warned of a potential 23 million barrels per day (mb/d) oil supply shortfall by 2050 without $17.4 trillion in global energy investments.
Secretary-General Haitham Al Ghais, speaking at a Vienna conference, projected global oil demand to reach 116 mb/d by 2045, driven by a 2 billion population increase and Asia’s 5% annual energy growth. The shortfall, representing 20% of current production, threatens economies like Nigeria, which relies on oil for 90% of its $50 billion revenue.
OPEC’s report, citing $12 trillion needed for upstream exploration and $5.4 trillion for infrastructure, urges investment in Nigeria’s 37 billion-barrel reserves and Saudi Arabia’s 297 billion barrels. Failure to invest could spike oil prices to $150 per barrel, compared to 2025’s $70, impacting 80% of global consumers.
Renewable energy, covering 15% of demand, cannot bridge the gap, with 70% of OPEC’s 13 members planning fossil fuel expansion. Critics, including Greenpeace, warn of environmental risks, but OPEC projects a 5% GDP loss for non-investing nations by 2050.